The value of bitcoin has recently shown some volatility after remaining unchanged for more than a week. The long-term forecasts are incredibly positive, in contrast to the short-term prediction’s apparent bearishness. Additionally, the previous price movement history and the current business setup suggest the possibility of a significant upswing, which can only be initiated if the price drops below $20,000 somewhere around the middle of 2024.
Following the halving event, Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, always increases quickly. But about 16 months after the halving event, a significant drop occurs. In light of this, a significant drop from the recently formed highs above $40,000 may likely result shortly after the halving. A significant bull run that leads to new highs over $100K and reaches close to $120K throughout Q3 2025 may start at this point.
The 0.618 FIB and 0.382 FIB in the accompanying chart have consistently been stable levels for Bitcoin in recent times. Prior to that, the 0.61b FIB ranges served as a solid basis to launch a significant upswing that marked the current highs near $70,000. These ranges might continue to act as support levels in the current situation, which could push the value over $100K in the ensuing days.
Once again beginning with a strong bearish trend that can develop into a bear market in 2026, Bitcoin may reach fresh highs above $120,000 in Q3 2025. The best crash in previous bear markets was 93.75% in 2011, while others have produced drops of more than 75% to 80%. Therefore, if a 70% decline is assumed for the bear market in 2026, the bottoms could not fall below $41,000 just a few months before the fifth halving in 2028.
